Red State Tax Reform

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11/18/2004

Red State Tax Reform

I was at a panel discussion earlier this week with Gene Steuerle of the Urban Institute, who said that he was skeptical that the Bush administration would propose a serious overhaul of the tax code because, "I know what it looks like when people are working seriously on tax reform, and I'm not seeing it." As a Treasury official in the Reagan era, Steuerle was one of the architects of the 1986 Tax Reform Act, so he does indeed know what it looks like, probably better than anyone.

Today's Washington Post brings news that the administration is considering some sort of tax reform short of a national sales tax or Value-Added Tax, ideas which were never in the cards. Instead, Jonathan Weisman reports, "the contours of a tax plan are taking shape: lower individual and corporate tax rates and steps to broaden the base of taxation and promote growth by cutting taxes on investment."

"Broaden the base," considered one of the basic goals of any tax reform, generally means reducing the categories of income that are exempt from taxation. Broadening the base, by eliminating special treatment of various kinds of investment income, in exchange for lowering rates, was the hallmark of the 1986 reform. But nothing else that Weisman reports suggests that what the White House is considering has anything to do with broadening the base. The favorite policy would be to create expanded savings accounts that would shelter investment income from taxation entirely, and the article suggests that the White House might pay for them by eliminating the corporate deduction for health insurance and the deductibility of state and local income taxes. That's not broadening the base -- at best it's shifting the base, or the tax burden, away from wealthy investors and onto most ordinary people who benefit from these deductions, or in the case of the first, from employer-paid health insurance.

(Which raises again the question, asked here before: Why is the President Determined to Destroy the Private Health Insurance System? It's one thing, albeit shameful, to want to do nothing to expand health care and to oppose proposals such as Kerry's that would slightly expand government's role in order to make the private system work. It's another thing to actively work to break an already fragile system, with no alternative in mind.)

Back to the question of the deductibility of state and local taxes: This was one of the big questions in 1986. Tax reform purists would like to eliminate the deductibility of state and local taxes, on fairness grounds as well as base-broadening. It provides a benefit only to taxpayers who itemize deductions and benefits those who live in high tax states. There is a strong policy argument on the other side, for keeping the deduction, but it's all academic: As the reformers found in 1986, it's a non-starter. Senator Moynihan put his foot down that year on behalf of New York, and there will always be enough votes from relatively high-tax states that deductibility will live on.

Except this time I wouldn't be surprised if the Bush administration is looking at the map and thinking blue state=high tax=screw 'em! But that's not quite right. Look at the CNN/Money Magazine ranking of states by tax burden (this data comes from the Tax Foundation and is flawed in several ways, especially because it includes sales taxes which are not deductible, but this is what legislators will be looking at). Not surprisingly, New York and DC are at the top of the list -- no Republican Senators at risk there. But close behind are Maine and Ohio (Snowe, Collins, Voinovich and DeWine are already the four Republican Senators the administration would be most worried about defecting on a tax bill, in addition to Chafee), Utah comes up fairly quickly, as does Idaho. That's more defections than they can afford.

Bottom line: they're not serious about this. As Steuerle said, the lights are not burning late into the night at the Treasury Department.

Posted by Mark Schmitt on 11/18/2004 at 11:20 AM in Decembrist archives | Permalink

Comments

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Mark,

I think using the CNN/magazine analysis to claim that removing the State income tax exemption won't happen is weak. We need to know what the tax structure looks like in each state.

True, Florida and Texas both have no income tax. But neither does Washington State, which is blue and trending bluer. California has a large state income tax, but Georgia's is not tiny.

Here is the State income tax table, for further digging:

http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/ind_inc.html
As for interior West states, we need to look a little closer. Utah and Idaho have relatively large tourism sectors, mostly from outdoor sports (mostly skiing/snowboarding). Do they have dispropotionately taxes on hotels, restaurants, and rental cars? These are in effect import tarrifs on the state, which raise the tax base without really doing any damage to state income.

Posted by: niq | 11/18/2004 at 02:04 PM

Okay, from a quick and dirty analysis, the top quartile in terms of top-bracket state income taxes are:

Montana
DC
California
North Carolina
Maine
Oregon
Vermont
Iowa
Hawaii
New York
Minnesota
Idaho
Ohio

Five Red States, and eight Blue States. This is a net win for the Red States, /especially/ when you consider the population of each state.

When Orrin Hatch is asked why he's raising taxes on his own citizens, he can respond "but I'm raising the more on those Hollywood liberals and New York city people". Ditto Richard Burr, etc.

Posted by: niq | 11/18/2004 at 02:11 PM

I hope you're right.... but I'm not sure optimism is ever a wise policy when contemplating the administration's future moves.

I live in one of the high tax states. I'm stretched to the limit paying property taxes equal to 50% of my mortgage payment. After local taxes, there are times -- such as being between jobs -- where I was one of the "lucky duckies" who paid no federal taxes. Losing the deduction on my nearly $10k/year property tax bill -- even at the lowest marginal rate -- takes a thousand dollars from my pocket.

However: If I made 5 times as much money and lived in a larger house, I might pay twice as much property taxes. That would cost, say, a 30% deduction of $20,000. HOWEVER -- if we expand the saving plan deductions to $30k, this hypothetical richer taxpayer would still come out $3k ahead.

Factor in the current AMT, which doesn't include deductions for state taxes, and someone across the river in New York who pays high state income taxes might well come out ahead: He gains "savings" deductions and loses deductions he can't currently claim.

If the tax plan primarily hits middle income voters.... why, that just makes more people hate local taxes, which turns them into anti-tax republicans. That, I recall reading, has been part of the plan all along.

Remember: It doesn't matter what the plan actually does. It matters how the plan is marketed.

Posted by: Larry Yudelson | 11/18/2004 at 02:29 PM

Sales taxes are again deductible from federal income tax, for the years 2004 and 2005, courtesy of the latest tax bill.

Posted by: Michael Masinter | 11/18/2004 at 02:47 PM

Actually, I believe it's either sales taxes or income taxes, taxpayer's choice. Of course, if you look at the states where there's no income tax, they're almost all red.

Posted by: paperwight | 11/18/2004 at 04:15 PM

To Niq: First, both income and property taxes are deductible, and in fact Utah and Maine have about the same income tax structure as New York. On the votes, I think if it's a relative loss for your own state, your not going to
vote for it, period. It's big money -- for a middle-income family with
a nice house in an area with high property and/or income taxes, it
would amount to several thousand dollars in tax increase. If I'm
Olympia Snowe's constituent, and that happens to me, I'm not going to
care that some atheist in Massachusetts is even worse off.

On the sales tax deductibility -- I hadn't realized this passed in the final version. I thought it was just in the House version. It is a choice -- you can deduct either sales or income taxes, not both and only if you itemize. I don't know how you calculate your sales taxes paid.

Also important to note that a lot of mid-high-income people lose their state/local tax deductibility anyway because of the Alternative Minimum Tax. According to the Post, the admin is thinking about actually eliminating the AMT, which is hugely expensive, and using the change in deductibility to pay for it as well as the tax-exempt investment accounts. That actually makes the calculation of who's better or worse off quite complicated. But if I represented a high-tax state, I would want AMT reform, plus retaining the deductibility of state/local taxes.

Posted by: none | 11/18/2004 at 04:39 PM

One idea for BLUE-state tax reform: Respond to any future Federal tax cuts by increasing state taxes to compensate, at least for high-earners.

More at http://urbanist.typepad.com/jarrett_walker_home/2004/11/a_bluestate_fed.html

Posted by: Jarrett | 11/18/2004 at 04:51 PM

Except, Jarrett, the elimination of deductions for state income tax actually increases their taxes as well, at the same time as it may technically be part of a federal tax reduction.

Posted by: paperwight | 11/18/2004 at 06:58 PM

Judging on the results of the last four years, there have been plenty of times when the Bush administration has not been serious but has taken action anyway. Just because a proposal is completely stupid or utterly content-free doesn't mean they won't make it...

Posted by: Doug | 11/19/2004 at 03:09 AM

Agree with some of the above comments (eg Doug): I'm not convinced by the "lights not on at the Treasury Department" line. This White House centralizes everything so a few loyalists inside the White House call the shots. Experience suggests they do that while they're flipping cards into a hat.

I'm interested in your policy argument for keeping the deduction. One is maybe not taxing the same income twice -- which I understand is allegedly a Bush principle as well. Feels right to me, but then it would: MD homeowner, this would be a hit.

Posted by: Thomas Nephew | 11/19/2004 at 11:47 AM

What Doug said.

Posted by: Zach | 11/21/2004 at 11:24 AM

I really hope Bush does pass this absolute disaster. Breaking the current health care 'system' would be a god send. Doing so, while at the same time eliminating the Republican's credibility consequently taking them out of the planning for a replacement would be even better.
The Dems could then take the torch of passing real tax reform (abolish the payroll tax or make it progressive), eliminate most deductions except mortgage and some educational deductions based on need, etc. It would nice to be seen as the party of simplification of the tax code, while at the same time painting the (R)s as the party of tax breaks for their cronies.

Posted by: theCoach | 11/23/2004 at 08:31 AM

Trivial aside:

Steuer = German for tax
le = German diminutive (more common in the South and Austria)

Hence Steuerle = little tax

Posted by: Electroglodyte | 11/24/2004 at 08:00 AM

I would think if the Dems want to advocate what the Coach is proposing there are going to be a lot of Republicans signing up for it.

On the subject of MSA's and Health Insurance: I do believe that the fact that many of us are shielded from what the actual price of healthcare helps to keep the prices high. There was a spot on the local news on the most affordable pharmacies. Someone from the highest priced chain (sorry Walgreens) was interviewed and said and one chain stated that while their prices were higher it didn't effect the majority of their customers because their insurance covered the difference. I know part of the goal for medical savings accounts is to try to break that cycle by a.) having people know how much they are being charged, b.) having people decide whether a doctor's visit or allergy medicine is worth the price and c.) have people choose their clinics based on service and price. Such a system would most certainly introduce competition and eventually lower the price of healthcare but the time that it would take to do so and the lack of coverage for many in the meantime make it far too risky to try by killing employer sponsored health insurance.

With that said, if the plan were to just move the deduction from health insurance to medical savings account investments we could have our cake and eat it too. The employer would still be providing coverage for health care and the employee would view the money as their's and use it wisely. There wouldn't be any laws against private insurance (which people could still opt to get - just as employers could still offer) nor would there be against government assistance (which is currently available). So in the end the biggest loser would be a health care industry (including pharmaceuticals) that's been riding the gravy train for far too long.

Posted by: Lloyd | 11/24/2004 at 11:19 AM

I'm from Washington, a blue state with a sales tax but no income tax. This is the first year that us Washingtonians can have a deduction for the sales tax on our federal taxes (here in Seattle I pay 8.8%, highest in the state, but not by a lot...county and municipal taxes add to the state tax).

I am happy for the deduction, especially because I don't have investments, don't own a house, and don't have any other deductions other than the standard one based on income below a certain level. I pay my income taxes and payroll taxes (which constitute at least as much as my income tax, usually more) and shoot, I need the money, so I'll take the deduction. I suppose it is the "they (investors) all get deductions, I want mine too."

Not exactly a good argument. In fact, it is a truly crappy argument.

That said, I want the deduction this year because I need the money, pure and simple. It will go towards rent and food and bus fare. I am not going to leverage this small credit into an immediately-creditable Hummer purchase, a downpayment on a house, a small business, or anything else. I'm going to use it for shelter, food, and to get to work.

So...I feel slimy because I am beginning to understand the no-tax fanaticism that many folks less well-off than me must feel. I feel it myself (goddammit, I need the money), but know in my heart that shifting the tax burden to workers like myself while offering some deductions is a double dose of irony. Workers pay more, investors pay less, and workers like myself justify any tax breaks that benefit us personally by saying "all the rich bastards, or at least those with enough money to invest get breaks, about time I got one too." Meanwhile, the debt balloons, the infrastructure suffers, and we refuse to pay for what we need while demanding more and more for less.

I don't even have kids in school, retired friends (I'm early 30s), or know anyone on Medicare/Medicaid/Welfare/Disability or anyone else who obviously benefits from government programs. I am, however, smart enough to know that I benefit from government programs everyday, and so does everyone else, and we need to pay for them, which is why I feel like I am cheating a bit with this new deduction.

But, I do need the money. So there you go.

Sigh.

Slightly off-topic, but why on earth is the SS payroll tax capped at around $90,000, and why on earth does anyone, nevermind a family, earning less than the poverty line (adjusted for geography) pay taxes at all? If Americans, not the government, know best what to do with their money, it seems to me that the poorest among us would be the VERY best at maximizing the utility of what few dollars they have.

That's my rant and I'm sticking to it. For now.

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Posted by: jeneey | 12/07/2006 at 01:34 AM

From Pastor David Cole.
I am a pastor to late Rosie Cliffe of Manchester City in United Kingdom, she mandated me, befor she died, to look for a viable investor who can manage and invest his funds and 50% of this funds should be giving to charity/motherless baby home while the remain 50% should be invest by the investor.If you know you are capable to invest and manage the above funds, kindly respond at once,Looking forward to your positive response.

Yours faithfully,
David Cole.

Posted by: Pst David Cole | 02/21/2007 at 08:01 AM

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Posted by: iknowall | 06/01/2007 at 12:31 PM

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Posted by: iknowall | 06/01/2007 at 12:33 PM

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Simultaneous search on Google, Yahoo and MSN Live Search.

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Posted by: iknowall | 06/01/2007 at 02:07 PM

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Simultaneous search on Google, Yahoo and MSN Live Search.

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Posted by: iknowall | 06/01/2007 at 02:09 PM

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