More wacky pollster comments

01/27/2004

More wacky pollster comments

Zogby's final tracking poll in New Hampshire this morning showed Kerry back to a 13-point lead over Dean. The last couple days, Zogby had been showing the strongest indications of a Dean comeback, with a difference of just three points. Zogby adds this strangely defensive comment at the end:

"A final note: I know that my polling in the past two-days has shown a close race. I have no doubt that this was the case. Dean had bottomed out in the latter part of the week, was re-gaining some of his support among key voting groups, and had rehabilitated up to a point his unfavorable ratings. But in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message. New Hampshire voters are always volatile and its primaries are always fluid. I have never gotten a New Hampshire primary wrong. I stand by my close numbers of the last few days as much as I stand by these final numbers."

What does it mean to "stand by" his previous numbers as well as these somewhat different numbers? Only one of them, or neither, will be "right," as in, it will correspond with the actual results tonight. No one will ever know whether his numbers from yesterday were "right" or "wrong." They might have been right for that day, but not an accurate prediction of what would happen if the election had been held that day, once people are forced to decide. And how can he be so certain that "New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message"? Wasn't the partial Dean recovery that he sees related to Dean presenting himself more as the accomplished moderate governor of a neighboring state?

Soon enough we'll know the real results, so who really cares if these numbers are a little off. They show the broad trends, and that's the most anyone can expect.

Posted by Mark Schmitt on 01/27/2004 at 09:57 AM in 2004 elections, Decembrist archives | Permalink

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Zogby is exactly right, according to this New Hampshire voter.

Some Dean supporters tried to find other candidates after everybody came back from Iowa. (I candidate-shopped myself.) Those candidates were by and large found wanting. Dean did an excellent job rehabilitating himself through the week, so that many were persuaded to come back to him.

On Monday, however, the final analysis took place, and some Dean supporters decided: I hate George Bush more than I love Howard Dean.

I still voted for Dean, however, because he's already proven he's tough and Kerry hasn't even been tested. Plus, I want to see if Kerry can keep on a relentless attack against Bush and the Republicans. If he backs down (and reverts to the Kerry of old instead of sticking with the 2004 model), we need to find that out now in the primaries.

Posted by: V. J. Meagher | 01/28/2004 at 10:52 AM