How Many Independents Vote in New Hampshire?

I've been in San Francisco (nice city) for two days, and never found a moment to post anything. But I've had a few small questions and observations bubbling up.

A couple times I've mentioned the role of independents in the New Hampshire primary, and how they could actually be causing Clark's support to be underestimated in the tracking polls. But I was curious: just how many independents could one expect to vote in this primary? Here's what I figured out from the 2000 results, and the exit polls.

In 2000, 147,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary. According to exit polls, 65% of those voters said they were registered Democrats. So assume about 51,000 were not registered in a party. They voted about 60-40 for Bradley over Gore.

In the Republican primary, 230,000 votes were cast. The exit polls found 63% were Republicans, so figure about 85,000 votes in that primary were cast by independents, who voted 3:1 for McCain.

There is no Republican primary this year. So, potentially, all 135,000 independents who voted in the two primaries four years ago might vote in the Democratic primary, which would be a fairly overwhelming force. That's unlikely to happen. But let's say a candidate such as Clark were to tap the energy that motivated independents to vote for McCain. Even if just 40,000 of the independents who previously voted in the GOP primary -- less than half -- and another half of the independents who had voted in the Democratic primary in the past came in again and voted for Clark, that's 65,000 votes even before he gets a single vote from a Democrat. Adding the 40,000 ex-McCain independents to the Democratic total, that would be good for 34% right there.

So why does anyone think attacking Clark as "not a real Democrat" is a good idea, at least in New Hampshire? It's exactly what these independents, who want less partisanship, want to hear.