« Three Dems might opt out of campaign finance system | Main | The Grand Bargain »

Ruy Teixera on Clark and New Hampshire

I found Ruy Teixera's analysis of how Wesley Clark could win the Democratic nomination entirely persuasive -- The Emerging Democratic Majority WebLog - DonkeyRising.

I was a little surprised, though, that he seem to assume that all Clark's opportunities begin after the New Hampshire primary, in which he can do no better than third. That was my initial assumption as well, given that Clark is coming late into a state that is now pretty well chopped up by the various campaigns, mostly Dean and Kerry. But the role of independents in the New Hampshire primary seems to me to create an opportunity for Clark to get started early on one of Ruy's other suggestions, that he build a base among independents and Republicans in states with open primaries. In New Hampshire, these are the independents who gave McCain his resounding victory over George W. Bush, and there is a population there that, in 2000, was actually wavering between whether to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary, and ultimately swung over to the Republicans. One poll found that one-third of Republican primary voters had considered voting in the other contest.

This year if they want to vote, their only option is on the Democratic side, and even though these voters are often anti-tax, they are probably likely to have the same distaste for Bush that they showed four years ago, and Clark offers some of the same strengths as McCain. It's very hard to poll this group accurately, because their turnout is so unpredictable, but there were hints that they were initially impressed with Dean, in that Dean did better in polls that assumed higher turnout of independents. I could see them making the same switch to Clark that they made to McCain four years ago, because fundamentally, they're not Wellstone Democrats.

Clark also has the makings of a base among New Hampshire liberals, such as John and Mary Rauh, who were mainstays of the Bradley campaign, and who have each run strong races for office, with John Rauh coming within 15,000 votes of winning a Senate seat a decade ago, which is closer than any Democrat has come since. According to the New York Times, they hosted a house party for Clark but are still uncommitted. If he can seal that deal and some others, it gives him a base of volunteers and local activists, as well as votes.

I'm not predicting that Clark will come in second in New Hampshire. I think that's a long-shot. But even a third-place finish could set him up right away as the only alternative to Dean. Consider the following perfectly plausible outcome. First, assume Gephardt holds his slight lead and beats Dean in Iowa, which I think is likely. Then, assume New Hampshire turns out as follows:

Dean 38%
Kerry 19
Clark 18
Gephardt 11
Lieberman, Edwards, the rest, single digits

In that scenario, which is compatible with current polls except that it moves Clark up somewhat, Dean has totally wiped out Kerry in his neighboring state. It's hard to see where the Kerry campaign goes after a 2:1 defeat. Clark, on the other hand, has finished third but has a solid margin over all the rest, and Dean is strong but since he didn't win Iowa and had been expected to win New Hampshire, there's no real boost for him as they go into South Carolina and Arizona.

The New Hampshire primary is still three months away, and something is going to change. It could be a Kerry comeback. It could be the emergence of Edwards or Lieberman in the state. But I think a continued Kerry collapse, and some gains by Clark are the more likely events of the next few months. That makes Ruy Teixera's scenario for Clark stronger, although there will be many twists and turns thereafter.

Posted by Mark Schmitt on November 3, 2003 | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
https://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341ce8a553ef00d834205f8f53ef

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Ruy Teixera on Clark and New Hampshire:

» Clarkbot 2.0 from Independents For Clark
This is the first appearance of Clarkbot 2.0, covering both blogs listed in Feedster and hundreds of blogs which Feedster does not track. Good news from the blogosphere. According to Public Nuisance, Clark has pulled ahead of Dean in the... [Read More]

Tracked on Nov 4, 2003 10:15:24 PM

» Bmw. Bmw part bmw motorcycle bmw usa bmw m3 bmw car from Godzik Blog
2005 BMW 5-Series. Competition from Acura, Audi and Mercedes-Benz Make AWD 5-Series Reality... [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 24, 2005 6:35:22 AM

» No Worms in this Apple from The Other Corner
Couldn't have said this (or this) better myself. Nowhere in the first amendment does it give someone the right to traffic stolen property... [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 25, 2005 12:49:06 PM

» Conspicuous absenc from Crooked Ti mber
Forbes is the latest magazine trying to capitalize on the blogging thing by holding a best blog competition across various categories. It’s interesting to note that no less than 53% of voters say that the best blog on the economy... [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 28, 2005 10:28:09 AM

» Email, RSS un Wikis from HIRSCgarden
Reiner Langenhan schreibt auf Handakte Von E-Mails zu RSS, in Reaktion auf meinen Beitrag im KMU-Blog: das kann ich nur best䴩gen! Ross Mayfield hat einen recht 䨮lichen Artikel in seinem Blog zu... [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 30, 2005 11:18:25 AM

» Finding Information on the Internet from Net Search
The University of California Berkeley recommends search strategies, explains search tools, and gives guidance on evaluating and citing web pages... [Read More]

Tracked on May 3, 2006 1:03:29 PM

» Making Your Mind-set More Flexible from oo Often, the
oo Often, the Wrong Work Mind-set Prevents Creativity [Read More]

Tracked on May 4, 2006 4:10:46 AM

» Congressional Investigators Are Critical of F.D.A.'s Efforts to Detect Drug Dangers from suffers from
Administration suffers from disorganization, bureaucratic infighting and an inability [Read More]

Tracked on May 7, 2006 2:18:45 PM

» Dictionary Search Page from Dictionary Search
An unabridged dictionary from aalii to zymurgy, including a pronunciation guide... [Read More]

Tracked on May 27, 2006 1:21:48 AM

» Jewels, Paychecks Given To Hamas Gov"t from from its allies
agreed to support a new program to temporarily funnel additional humanitarian aid directly to the [Read More]

Tracked on May 27, 2006 10:52:08 AM

» Schalke Fined from UEFA Cup tie
the behaviour of their fans at a UEFA Cup tie against Espanyol in Barcelona. Several [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 6, 2006 7:18:06 PM

» Sunday 7 June 1663 from and so home,
he has now, whom I say is much prettier than ours and she the contrary. It troubles me [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 12, 2006 1:11:57 PM

» Somalia Contact Group meets for first time (AP) from and demanded
its support Thursday to the countrys weak interim government and demanded free access so aid groups can help the impoverished Somali [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 16, 2006 6:23:15 AM

» New Management at Clipper Fund from he Question at
he Question at The Clipper Fund: Can the New Managers Do as Well as the Old? [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 19, 2006 4:01:28 AM

» Chandler Centered on Reaching Potential from is three months
a fresh start with the Hornets, who obtained him in a trade earlier this month in exchange [Read More]

Tracked on Jul 25, 2006 3:18:13 AM

» OutlookSoft Drives Next Generation Performance Management from in an exclusive
(PRWEB Aug 1, 2006) Trackback URL: http://prweb.com/pingpr.php/SG9yci1TdW1tLUVtcHQtSW5zZS1JbnNlLVplcm8= [Read More]

Tracked on Aug 7, 2006 7:26:41 PM

Comments

http://www.webmotril.com
http://www.webmotril.com/directorio-web/index.html

http://www.foros.webmotril.com
los foros
http://www.anuncios.webmotril.com
http://www.webmotril.com/partners4.html
anunciate ya anuncios gratis
http://www.chat.webmotril.com
ven a chatear gratis
http://www.links.webmotril.com


liens gratuits en dur
http://r.guerrero.free.fr/
http://r.guerrero.free.fr/directory/

web directory

http://www.inmobiliaria.webmotril.com
http://www.richard.webmotril.com
http://www.manga.webmotril.com

http://www.internet.webmotril.com

portal web de motril

http://pages.over-blog.net/
http://tempsperdu.over-blog.org/

http://angifere.over-blog.com
http://laguiaweb.blogspot.com/

Posted by: portal web | Sep 8, 2007 11:57:40 AM

Post a comment